I’m with Bike Nerd. Most of my rides are 1 to 1.5 hours and can almost always handle with one 24 oz bottle (recommendation #1) and I have a small saddle bag that basically is just one multi-tool, tube, and a couple cartridges (recommendation #2), then all I need to carry is cellphone and keys in shirt back pocket (recommendation #3). But make no mistake, if I’m doing a longer ride on unfamiliar trails, I’ll use the small backpack.